More on Venezuela

Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez said Sunday she has had “enough” of Washington’s orders, as she works to unite the country after the US capture of its former leader Nicolás Maduro.

Rodríguez has been walking a tight-rope since being backed by the US to lead the country in the interim; balancing keeping Maduro loyalists on board at home while trying to ensure the White House is happy.

Now, almost a month into her new role, Rodríguez has pushed back on the US, amid ongoing pressure including a series of demands for Venezuela to resume oil production.

“Enough already of Washington’s orders over politicians in Venezuela,” she told a group of oil workers in Puerto La Cruz city, at an event broadcast by state-run channel Venezolana de Televisión.  “Let Venezuelan politics resolve our differences and our internal conflicts. This Republic has paid a very high price for having to confront the consequences of fascism and extremism in our country.”

It remains unclear how or when the political situation in Venezuela will progress. The Trump administration has not commented on these recent remarks. 

On War

In warfare, there is a longstanding perception that the use of widespread violence against civilians makes them more likely to capitulate. Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, whose goal was to make wars as short as possible, prescribed the use of terror against civilian populations as a method to achieve quick victory. This idea, though widespread, is not often accurate. 

In the first world war, Germany shot civilians in large numbers during their invasion and occupation of Belgium. This not only did not break the spirit of the populace, but rather hardened their opposition. More recently, Russia has repeatedly and deliberately bombarded apartments, shops, churches, hospitals and other civilian areas in Ukraine, all to no avail for their war effort, both materially and psychologically.

Today, it seems that the only things guaranteed from this kind of behavior are increased hostility from (1) the population being victimized and (2) the larger world of people and nations watching the display.  Even before the Geneva Conventions and the so-called “rules-based order” that we currently live in, targeting civilians was widely unpopular, if unfortunately commonplace. Rather than cerebral realistic strategy, such actions can only come from a place of self-defeating barbarism. 

A US Takeover of Greenland?

Is there actually going to be a US takeover of Greenland? 

President Trump has continued to push the issue, releasing a letter stating, “The world is not secure unless we have complete and total control of Greenland.” Security may be the stated reason from the government, though some locals in the country’s capital of Nuuk, and other critical observers, reject that claim and ascribe other motivations, notably acquisition of the country’s mineral wealth, and challenging the NATO alliance in favor of an America-first return to the Monroe Doctrine of regional hegemony.  Polls have repeatedly shown that US annexation is very unpopular not only in Greenland, but in the US and Europe. Countries like Denmark and France have already sent military units to Nuuk and have said they plan to use military force in its defense against unlawful incursions. 

How much they may be able to do against the world’s largest military remains to be seen, but the European countries are banking on Trump pulling back and eventually losing interest in this project if enough resistance is shown. All this commotion comes at a time when frustrations within the NATO alliance are high, with Trump accusing the other allied nations of not playing their part in defense funding. 

On the Opening of WWI

What caused the First World War? 

Every child is taught in school the famous shot heard around the world, when Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip assassinated Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian empire. The Austrians retaliated against Serbia, which drew a lot of allied countries into the fray until the world was at war. But there is extensive context necessary to understand how the fire spread out of control so quickly. And why was it that after the war Germany was blamed so harshly for a conflict that she never even started?

A large part of the preexisting tension that led to world war involved Germany and France. Animosity between the two nations had been strong ever since the Franco-Prussian war of 1870. A staggering defeat for the French, it culminated in the crowning of the new united German Empire, which ceremony took place in the conquered palace of Versailles. More vitally, the key economic border regions of Alsace and Lorraine were annexed by the Germans. French pride and the need for redemption played a heavy role in leading France to war. For their part, the Germans believed that the French needed a final and thorough crushing to cement German power in Europe. A deep and nasty militarism had taken root in the German consciousness, with military men like General Friedrich von Bernhardi believing that war was necessary to protect national interests. The Kaiser, always a mercurial and paranoid man, was eternally tormented by the idea that his empire was being encircled by various other European states who were jealous of Germany’s transcendent might. 

Militarism spurred statesmen and generals on all sides to avoid stepping back in any way that could have possibly prevented the incoming disaster. Germany was particularly committed, having prepared the so-called Schlieffen Plan years earlier, from which no deviations could be made. All-in-all, Germany should have carried the largest share of blame for propelling the conflict into the mass slaughterhouse that it became, although the ramifications of its punishment would lead to further disaster down the road. 

Venezuela's State of the Union Message

Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez used her first state of the union message Thursday to advocate for opening the crucial state-run oil industry to more foreign investment following the Trump administration’s pledge to seize control of Venezuelan crude sales.

For the first time, Rodríguez laid out a vision for Venezuela’s new political reality — one that challenges her government’s most deeply rooted beliefs less than two weeks after the United States captured and toppled former President Nicolás Maduro.

Under pressure from the U.S. to cooperate with its plans for reshaping Venezuela’s sanctioned oil industry, Maduro’s former vice president declared that a “new policy is being formed in Venezuela.”  She urged the foreign diplomats in attendance to tell investors abroad about the changes and called on lawmakers to approve oil sector reforms that would secure foreign firms’ access to Venezuela’s vast reserves.

On War

One idea that always seems to emerge in periods of peace and naiveté, until it is inevitably shattered by reality, is that war is no longer something which will or can be carried out. Specifically, that in a “modern” world relations are governed by new rules that suppress any impetus for making war. In his 1909 book The Grand Illusion, English writer Norman Angell posited that economic relations between the major European powers had made the possibility of a large and lasting war impossible. Five years later came the start of the first World War. 

Optimists more recently had been living in a Fukuyama-inspired post-Cold War reverie that free trade would bring peace. They were, or should have been, disabused of that notion by, among other things, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin had every possible economic disincentive to not seek a war in Europe, and yet did it anyway, and continues still, despite the financial, physical, and optical battering his nation has endured. 

It seems there must be truth in the idea that forging strong economic ties can help prevent some wars. After all, maintaining good trade relations is almost certainly a strong reason why China has not yet invaded Taiwan.  And economic competition can be a healthy form of nonviolent warfare.  Perhaps wise or intelligent leadership is the difference maker here, a troubling thought given the state of world leaders today, and through history. 

Still, at its core, war is not the sole or primary province of material interest. There is some other element in the hearts of men that makes for the final push off the cliff.  We humans may or may not be inherently violent, but our history shows great propensity toward it.  Ideally, this should keep us on guard against the intellectual vanity of assuming that a peaceful status quo is more valuable to a nation than the spoils of military force.

War Powers Resolution

Senate Republicans are facing intense pressure from President Donald Trump to vote down a war powers resolution Wednesday that is aimed at limiting the president’s ability to carry out further military action against Venezuela.

Five GOP senators joined with Democrats to advance the resolution last week, but Trump has lashed out at the defectors as he tries to head off passage of the bill. Democrats are forcing the vote after U.S. troops captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in a surprise nighttime raid earlier this month.

The legislation, even if passed by the Senate, has virtually no chance of becoming law because it would eventually need to be signed by Trump. But it represented both a test of GOP loyalty to the president and a marker for how much leeway the Republican-controlled Senate is willing to give Trump to use the military abroad.

Venezuelan Prisoners

One of the positive effects promised by the US government to come from their actions in Venezuela was the release of political prisoners. However, of the approximately 800 people held in Venezuelan prisons for political reasons only a small fraction have been let out. 

According to Foro Penal, a local human rights advocacy group, 49 people have been confirmed as freed, several being foreign nationals. Many families are lamenting the lack of a timely release of their loved ones, a majority of whom have been cut off from contact for months, if not years. Conditions inside Venezuela’s prisons have been criticized internationally, with torture and deprivation being common. 

The Trump administration has pledged to secure the release of all unlawfully held detainees in the country, but no schedule for those releases has been put forward. The Venezuelan government says that the delay stems from necessary procedural steps inherent to the process of releasing prisoners. Ordinary citizens worry that the delays indicate the government’s attempt to stall the issue until it no longer is pressured to comply with US demands.

La Presidenta

On January 5, 2026, Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as acting president of Venezuela, two days after President Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. troops and taken to the United States to face criminal charges. Her succession followed years of political advancement that have made her one of the most powerful figures in the country. Vice president since 2018, Rodríguez is a close ally of Maduro and a committed adherent of Chavismo, a populist movement created by Hugo Chávez.

Rodríguez’s prominent presence within Chauvista politics comes from her upbringing in a political family. Born on May 18, 1969 in Caracas, she is the second child of Delcy Gómez and Jorge Antonio Rodríguez, who was active in the country’s socialist movement. In 1976 he was accused of kidnapping U.S. businessman William Niehous. While in police custody, Rodríguez was reportedly tortured to death. Delcy Rodríguez’s elder brother, Jorge Rodríguez, trained as a psychiatrist and later became an influential politician, now serving as the President of the National Assembly. 

After Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were captured on January 3, 2026, there was some confusion over Rodríguez’s role. She initially said that Maduro was Venezuela’s “only president.” However, on January 3 the country’s Supreme Court ordered her to serve as acting president, and Rodríguez, who was supported by the military, was sworn into office two days later. It is not yet clear to what degree she has solidified power over the various factions within the regime, including hardliners like Diosdado Cabello. Rodríguez will also have to balance appeasing the various groups in government and working under the shadow of the Trump administration, which is attempting to exert even greater pressure on Venezuela, particularly in its relation to Cuba.

Venezuelan Oil

Venezuela’s oil industry has been in the spotlight since President Donald Trump used military force to capture the country’s leader, President Nicolas Maduro.

In the days that followed, Trump said the U.S. would run Venezuela and tap its oil reserves. He said Venezuela stole U.S. oil, a reference to former President Hugo Chavez’s move decades ago to nationalize hundreds of foreign-owned assets, including those owned by American oil companies.

Trump floated a plan for those companies to return and rebuild Venezuela’s beleaguered oil industry. He later announced Venezuela would provide 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., and Venezuelan state-owned oil company PDVSA said it is in negotiations with the U.S. government for the sale of crude oil.

The administration also “selectively” removed sanctions to enable the shipping and sale of Venezuelan oil to markets worldwide, saying the proceeds would settle in U.S.-controlled accounts and be disbursed to the American and Venezuelan populations, according to the Energy Department.

All in all, it remains to be seen what effects these measures will have in revitalizing Venezuela’s crude production and export markets, and how the changes would affect the larger oil market. 

A Quick Update on Venezuela…

Tensions remain frayed in Venezuela, as uncertainty over the future of the nation’s governance plagues the towns and cities of the Bolivarian Republic. In the capital city of Caracas, joy in some areas has been replaced by confusion, and then fear. The seizure of dictator Nicolás Maduro by US forces has not thus far brought about a wider change in rule. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has been sworn in as President, and most of the high-level politicians and functionaries have retained their positions. The government has taken measures to clamp down on any potential uprisings sparked by Maduro’s kidnapping. Journalists both foreign and domestic have been detained and interrogated, though most have now been released. The public has also faced increased repression in the form of armed bands known as “colectivos” and sympathetic to the regime. 

No one can know what fate awaits Venezuela in the coming period. It is likewise unclear how closely events thus far have mirrored the expectations or plans of the Trump administration, if indeed such forethought was made. The most positive fact that can be seen in this situation is that chaos has not descended upon civil society as yet. Still, Venezuela is now in limbo, with events remaining to shape the eventual status quo for the beleaguered nation.