Venezuela Blockade

In a further escalation of the ongoing tensions with Venezuela, President Trump has ordered a “blockade” of the South American nation. Specifically, the move would target oil tankers under sanctions by the US. Large amounts of troops and vessels have been moved near Venezuela in recent months, including an aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford. Trump cited as justification for the inflammatory action an unspecified “theft of assets,” and accused the Venezuelan government of terrorism, drug smuggling, and human trafficking. The Trump administration has already designated President Nicolás Maduro and members of his government as members of a terrorist organization, the so-called “Cartel de los Soles.” The US military has been carrying out targeted strikes on boats in the Caribbean it suspects to be involved in transporting drugs, resulting in at least 90 fatalities.

Internationally, crude oil prices rose due to uncertainty about how Venezuela’s oil exports may be impacted by the Trump administration. Losing all or much of their oil export capability would be devastating for the country, as oil makes up a massive portion of its economy (approximately 90% of exports). A cutoff of all or most of Venezuelan crude for an extended period would very likely drive up global oil prices substantially. Still, it remains unclear how serious the threat of full blockade would be. Trump may be using the threat of conflict to pressure the Maduro regime to make concessions. The President has been known to throw out ideas on social media, only to later change course. Regardless, Maduro has lashed back, accusing the United States of imperialism and appealing to close allies like Russia for support. Only time will tell if this ongoing antagonistic saga with Venezuela will come to a peaceful or violent resolution.